Weekly Brief: How will the Russian War end?

Current Situation

As a result of Ukraine’s desire to align with the EU and NATO, and their pro-Western approaches, Russia has attacked Ukraine in an attempt to prevent this alliance from happening. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia has shocked the world and has provoked significant repercussions on both the world politics and economy. As a result of this invasion, the stock market has been in a frenzy with the energy and commodities sector facing severe volatility with oil prices jumping up to levels never seen before. Currently, contractors are closely analyzing and observing the talks between Russian and Ukrainian delegations as they look for any signs of appeasement, hoping that would lead to the easing of prices. Consequently, countries such as the US have moved their focus on producing cleaner and safer energy and to shift the world’s reliance away from Russian oils and fuels.

On the war side, although Ukraine has faced attacks in almost all of its major cities, they have defended valiantly; however, it is predicted that if the Russian invasion continues, it’ll cause severe refugee problems in Europe which would effectively influence NATO, who has attempted to remain mutual in this conflict.

Vladimir Putin

The Russian President Putin’s unpredictability in his actions has led economists and everyone around the world to question when this war will end as Putin remains the controller in this battle. Putin has threatened nuclear warfare which could lead to catastrophic aftermath around the globe. Analysts have stated that Putin would not back down or accept a humiliating defeat.

Possible Outcomes

Since Russia has a lot of remaining combat forces and troops, it is possible for this war to continue until the surrender of Ukraine. Analysts have concluded that although a stalemate is possibly the best solution in the current scenario, it is unlikely that Putin will accept this as Russia has a clear advantage in their resources.

Another possible outcome is the “purge and partition” where Russia would overtake all Ukrainian military forces and enforce the Russian regime across parts of Ukraine. For example, in Eastern Ukraine, the Donbas region, they are pro-Russian which means that Russia could easily enforce their domination over parts of Ukraine.

One other solution would be “insurgency,” meaning that citizens of Ukraine leaving the country to escape the enforcement of the Pro-Russian regime. Since Ukraine has experienced freedom for the past few decades, it is very unlikely that, even after the invasion of Ukraine, Ukraine’s citizens would remain compliant under Putin’s rule.

The last and evidently the most catastrophic solution would be for the countries of NATO to step into this war to aid Ukraine in its war against Russia. This would effectively lead to the possible beginning of WWIII.

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References

Ellyatt, H. (2022, March 9). How will Russia's war with Ukraine end? here are 5 possible outcomes. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/08/how-will-russias-war-with-ukraine-end-here-are-5-possible-outcomes.html

Petkova, M. (2022, March 21). How will the war in Ukraine end? Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/21/how-will-the-war-in-ukraine-end